Wafer prices continue to decline, while solar cell prices fluctuate downward [SMM Silicon-based PV Morning Meeting Summary]

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SMM reported on May 16:

Electrode

Price

This week, electrode prices were under pressure and declined. The quotes for ordinary power carbon electrodes with diameters of 960-1,100mm were 7,300-7,500 yuan/mt, down 200 yuan/mt WoW. The quotes for electrodes with a diameter of 1,272mm were 7,800-8,000 yuan/mt, down 100 yuan/mt WoW. The quotes for ordinary power graphite electrodes with diameters of 960-1,100mm, 1,272mm, and 1,320mm were 10,500-11,500 yuan/mt, 11,500-12,500 yuan/mt, and 12,500-13,500 yuan/mt, respectively, all down 500 yuan/mt WoW.

Supply

Supply was relatively in surplus, and producers were under significant inventory pressure.

Demand

Affected by the low operating rate of silicon metal, the consumption cycle of electrodes was prolonged. Currently, most silicon plant purchases were based on immediate needs, and overall demand was weak.

Silicon Metal

Price

This week, the spot price of silicon metal moved sideways. Yesterday, the SMM east China oxygen-blown #553 silicon was priced at 9,000-9,200 yuan/mt. The main futures contract fluctuated rangebound, closing at 8,410 yuan/mt yesterday, up 0.36% from the previous day. The quotes from silicon metal suppliers remained stable. As the futures market warmed up, the availability of low-priced goods in the market decreased, and downstream users made purchases as needed.

Production:

This week, the supply of silicon metal decreased WoW, mainly due to the impact of temporary maintenance at some production facilities. There are expectations for some production facilities to resume or commence production in the later period.

Inventory

Social Inventory: According to SMM statistics, the total social inventory of silicon metal in major regions was 599,000 mt on May 15, up 3,000 mt WoW. Among them, the social general warehouse inventory was 132,000 mt, down 1,000 mt WoW, and the social delivery warehouse inventory was 467,000 mt (including unregistered warrants and spot goods), up 4,000 mt WoW. (Excluding Inner Mongolia, Gansu, etc.)

Wafer

Price

The market prices for N-type 18X wafers were 0.95-0.95 yuan/piece, and for N-type 210RN wafers were 1.08-1.1 yuan/piece. Prices dropped back slightly this week, with market prices continuing to decline. Some larger orders could be negotiated at lower prices, but buyers were cautious about order volumes, and actual transactions did not increase significantly.

Production

Global wafer production in May is expected to be around 58GW, a decrease of about 3GW from April, mainly due to some specialized enterprises reducing their production schedules based on cost and market considerations.

Inventory

This week, overall market transactions were sluggish, and wafers experienced a slight destocking based on the supply-demand balance of cells.

Solar Cell

Price

The price of high-efficiency PERC182 solar cells (with efficiency of 23.2% and above) was 0.29-0.295 yuan/W, with prices declining and fewer orders; the PERC210 solar cell market has no trading volume.

The mainstream quotations for Topcon183 solar cells (with efficiency of 25% and above) were around 0.255-0.26 yuan/W; Topcon210RN solar cells were 0.26-0.27 yuan/W; Topcon210 solar cells were around 0.275-0.28 yuan/W. The overall price of solar cells is gradually entering a bottom platform period, with expectations of slight downward fluctuations, but the downside room is narrowing.

HJT direct sales are few, with integrated manufacturers being self-sufficient.

Production

The global PV cell production schedule in May reached 60-61GW, a reduction of about 7.20% compared to April. Topcon production decreased by more than 8% MoM in May, with weakening demand for solar cells, and it is expected that some inventory buildup will occur in early June.

Inventory

Module manufacturers adjusted their procurement needs, with orders significantly reduced, and solar cell inventory increased by 76.56% WoW.

PV Film

Price

PV-grade EVA

The price of PV-grade EVA was 10,500-10,700 yuan/mt. The domestic delivery-to-factory price of PV-grade POE was about 12,000-14,000 yuan/mt, with POE prices remaining stable.

PV Film

The current mainstream price of 420g transparent EVA film was 5.38-5.59 yuan/m², 420g white EVA film was 5.88-6.09 yuan/m², 380g EPE film was 5.51-5.7 yuan/m², and 380g POE film was 6.84-7.22 yuan/m².

Production

The production schedule of PV-grade EVA increased by 8.22% MoM in April, and the production schedule of PV film increased by 9.07% MoM.

Inventory

Currently, petrochemical companies have low inventory, and the transaction pace of PV-grade EVA has slowed down recently.